werewolf XII - Day 1 (ends midday Thurs)

Play by Email games in progress.
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Stompy
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Post by Stompy » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:15 pm

Day 1
You wake up in hospital. Blinking in the early morning light you realise that somethings not right. What happened? Who are you? Who are all these other people in the same hospital room as me?
You remember screaming, fur flying, and an explosion! The doctor tells you an asteriod fell on your village and you've all got amnensia!


Day 1 will end 12 midday Thursday.

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:23 pm

TaleSpinner is a Wolf
TaleSpinner is not the Seer

Vote TaleSpinner

jttm80
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Post by jttm80 » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:40 pm

So to clarify Stompy's post, if you are not a particular role, your result will be (by default) positive.

Gee, that makes mine very difficult to gauge.

Talespinner is a Wolf.
annawid is a Seer.

Either Talespinner is the wolf, or jeff and I are both villagers.

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redturtle
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Post by redturtle » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:42 pm

Interesting game.

If we all reveal what we got then...

This is way too much thinking :D

I actually think given that we get the opposite if we are not the role then...

jeff is not a Wolf

Vote Jeff

If you got a wolf sighting then it is most likely that you are not the seer and thus got the opposite so they are most likely not wolves.

The real trick is if I am a wolf without knowing it then I am just about to kill my fellow wolf.

If I am the seer without knowing it then I am about to kill a villager.
Get a grip!

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redturtle
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Post by redturtle » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:44 pm

jttm80 wrote:So to clarify Stompy's post, if you are not a particular role, your result will be (by default) positive.

Gee, that makes mine very difficult to gauge.

Talespinner is a Wolf.
annawid is a Seer.

Either Talespinner is the wolf, or jeff and I are both villagers.
Actually, I think it is not that it is positive but it will give an opposite reading. So you need to do a matrix for each role.
Get a grip!

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Stompy
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Post by Stompy » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:45 pm

jttm80 wrote:So to clarify Stompy's post, if you are not a particular role, your result will be (by default) positive.

Gee, that makes mine very difficult to gauge.

Talespinner is a Wolf.
annawid is a Seer.

Either Talespinner is the wolf, or jeff and I are both villagers.
The result will not necessarly be positive. Take the following example for a Seer viewing:

Stompy is Seer, Talespinner is Wolf -> result will be "Talespinner is Wolf"
Stompy is Seer, Talespinner is not Wolf -> result will be "Talespinner is not Wolf"
Stompy is not Seer, Talespinner is Wolf -> result will be "Talespinner is not Wolf"
Stompy is not Seer, Talespinner is not Wolf -> result will be "Talespinner is Wolf"

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annawid
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Post by annawid » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:47 pm

My mind is aching..... :cry:
Back and ready to game

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:53 pm

annawid wrote:My mind is aching..... :cry:
Not just yours... : :smt120

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Stompy
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Post by Stompy » Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:53 pm

jttm80 wrote:So to clarify Stompy's post, if you are not a particular role, your result will be (by default) positive.

Gee, that makes mine very difficult to gauge.

Talespinner is a Wolf.
annawid is a Seer.

Either Talespinner is the wolf, or jeff and I are both villagers.
Ok one further example. If we use jttm80's as an example. The following 2 combinations are possible:
jttm80 is Seer AND TaleSpinner is Wolf
jttm80 is not Seer AND TaleSpinner is not Wolf
These combinations would give the result "Talespinner is a Wolf"

likewise for the Sorcerer:
jttm80 is the Sorc AND annawid is Seer
jttm80 is not Sorc AND annawid is not Seer
These 2 would give the result "annawid is a Seer"
Last edited by Stompy on Tue Mar 06, 2007 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:30 pm

Therefore, I'm definately NOT a Wolf. If jeff AND jttm80 both spied me and got a Wolf result, this means that:

a) They're both Seers and I'm a Wolf, or
b) They're both not Seers and I'm not a Wolf.

Since we know that we only have 1 Seer, that leaves (b) = TaleSpinner is NOT a Wolf. Of course, this just means that I'm most likely going to get killed in N1 since the Wolves know that I'm not a fellow Wolf.

My results:

jttm80 is not a Wolf
jeff is the Seer

Let's take a look at these individually:

jttm80 is not a Wolf. This means that I'm either the Seer and jttm80 is NOT a Wolf (4/6 = 66% chance) , or I'm not the Seer and jttm80 is the Wolf (2/6 = 33% chance). Probability says that I'm most likely the SEER, particularly if someone else had a positive "WOLF" result on jttm80.

jeff is the Seer. That means that I'm either the Sorceror and jeff is the Seer (1/6 = 16.5% chance), or I'm not the Sorceror and jeff is not the Seer (5/6 = 83.5% chance). Probability says that I'm NOT the Sorceror, and jeff is NOT the Seer.

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Tue Mar 06, 2007 4:43 pm

Thinking a bit more about this, the only way we can tell for certain if a person is a Wolf or not is to get TWO views from TWO people. Like how jttm80 and jeff both viewed me in N0, thus clearing me as not a wolf.

Has anyone else done a Seer view on jttm80?
In a similar fashion, has anyone else done a Sorceror view on jeff?

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christianmoura
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Post by christianmoura » Tue Mar 06, 2007 5:27 pm

TaleSpinner is not a Wolf
TaleSpinner is the Seer

Please tell me what this means.

These were my actual N0 actions. Talespinner is by far the craftiest wolf, so when in doubt he needs to be lynched.

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redturtle
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Post by redturtle » Tue Mar 06, 2007 5:42 pm

umm christian, that means you are the seer :D

There is the wolves night 1 kill!

I dont think we should be revealing anymore...
Last edited by redturtle on Tue Mar 06, 2007 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Get a grip!

jttm80
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Post by jttm80 » Tue Mar 06, 2007 5:49 pm

:wall:
Make the hurtin' stop...

Okay, so basically then if you are not something, the result is reversed. Can we agree that is the general rule?

In any case, I'm inclined to agree that Talespinner isn't a wolf because, like he says, we only have 1 Seer.

This is tricky, because the wolves don't know who they are until the Night Kill. So right now, does everyone want to reveal what they know (making it harder for the wolves to lie later), or keep stuff hidden?

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Tue Mar 06, 2007 6:12 pm

This is all dependent on everyone telling the truth.

Now I think Redturtle and jttm80 would.
Anna, christian, and TS are all dodgey.
Fernando would sit in between most likely truthful, but not always.

Me, I'm an accomplished lier. :badgrin:

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