Werewolf 11 - Wolves win!

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christianmoura
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Post by christianmoura » Wed Feb 28, 2007 7:30 pm

I've left myself out of my own analysis, but feel free to a) check my past behaviour for consistency b) elaborate on possible wolf pairings including me.

I feel very confortable justifying any of my past behaviour.

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Stompy
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Post by Stompy » Wed Feb 28, 2007 9:23 pm

christianmoura wrote: If you are evil, you would have claimed to be Masons as a clever gamble that there were no other Masons in the game, pretty much a safe bet I'd say, after Anna, Fernando and Talespinner came out and revealed their roles.
Ah but you could say the same about the villager claims, anna's bodyguard, and even your own hunter role.

If we follow the sequence then I was the first one to make a special role claim. The later the special roles were claimed the less likely that they would be caught out on.

Order of reveal:
Villager - christianmoura(1), fernando(2)*, TaleSpinner(4)
Good Guy++ - Stompy&jttm80(3)
Bodyguard - annawid(4)
Hunter - christianmoura(5)

*with special powers claim
++ as I have previously said, I am not allowed to reveal my role *grumble, grumble*
** Jon by default is good guy#2 (That role which cannot be named)

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Fernando
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Post by Fernando » Thu Mar 01, 2007 12:19 am

First, let me say this: I believe Stompy absolutely now.

Stompy didnt reveal his Mason role AFTER Redturtle was lynched: he did this BEFORE.. when he said :
Stompy wrote: By the way, is anyone else not allowed to reveal their roles?
C´mon, which other role but "mason" wouldnt be allowed to reveal?

:arrow: That means that STOMPY and JTTM80 are 100% good.

This also means that among ME, ANNA, CHRISTIAN and TALESPINNER we have 2 wolves.

I KNOW I am a Villager... I always said I COULD have a Special Role because I could be the Tinker (I would not know it...).

ANNA, TALESPINNER and CHRISTIAN:

Each one of you has stated before your belief in my goodness. I know that one of you three is Good... this means I have 66% chance of voting a wolf if I vote one of you three.

Vote annawid

jttm80
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Post by jttm80 » Thu Mar 01, 2007 11:25 am

Yo yo...
See, my cousin from the South, Fernando, got it right the first time...
This is why those Brazil-folk so good at that football, they don't let no damn werewolves get the ball...

Those f*#$rs from Serie' A, those guys are damn suspicious...
:smt017

But since we got this extension and all (and the black man don't need no extension), I'm waiting for the wid-wid-wid to get in da hiz-ouse and defense herself, yo'

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Thu Mar 01, 2007 11:52 am

Vote Tally Day 2
2 Stompy - TaleSpinner(1), Christianmoura(2), annawid(3)
0 christianmoura - Stompy(4)
1 annawid - Fernando(5)

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christianmoura
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Post by christianmoura » Thu Mar 01, 2007 12:24 pm

I am more inclined to trust Fernando and Stompy at this stage, as Fernando raises a good point.

placeholder vote for annawid = will log on back late at night to see if there are any new developments.

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Thu Mar 01, 2007 2:45 pm

christianmoura wrote:I am more inclined to trust Fernando and Stompy at this stage, as Fernando raises a good point.

placeholder vote for annawid = will log on back late at night to see if there are any new developments.
I love the way this guy plays. He's basically saying, "I vote you now to make you sweat. I'll give my reasons later (to keep you wondering what they are), after I do more important stuff like make my cup of coffee."

Well, annawid, it looks like my vote on Stompy is the only thing that's keeping you off the lynching line. Problem is, Fernando made a very good point about Stompy and Jttm80 probably being the Masons, and I'm starting to believe it myself. I'd love to change my vote to christianmoura who's rapidly proving to be a real jerk, but I'm inclined to listen to what you have to say first.

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Stompy
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Post by Stompy » Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:13 pm

Ok, I kinda believe Fernando isnt a wolf.
That leaves 3 combinations:
Talespinner, annawid
Talespinner, christianmoura
annawid, christianmoura

My Vote's on Talespinner

Talespinner - if you *know* you're innocent, and you also believe Fernando, why wait to change your vote????
According to your logic annawid and christianmoura *must* be wolves.
Yet you are pondering who to vote for???
To me this is a clear sign you are a wolf, and are trying to put others off your scent!

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:45 pm

Stompy wrote:Talespinner - if you *know* you're innocent, and you also believe Fernando, why wait to change your vote????
According to your logic annawid and christianmoura *must* be wolves.
Yet you are pondering who to vote for???
To me this is a clear sign you are a wolf, and are trying to put others off your scent!
Heh.. now look who's the nervous kid! Relax, smart-ass, lynch time is tomorrow morning. You for one should know that votes can change 5 minutes before lynch time.

Truth is, we haven't heard anything from annawid in D2. She's a smart girl, and I'd like to know what she thinks about the two of you being Masons, particularly over why she voted you in the first place.

Also, you've got this bad habit of misquoting/ignoring my statements. I said I was "starting to believe Fernando", not that I believe Fernando outright.

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Thu Mar 01, 2007 5:21 pm

I'll say this though, Stompy.

I'M NOT A WOLF!!

I came into this game as a pure Villager, and I've taken the strategy to annoy as many people as possible. It's been extremely fun and I'm loving every minute of this game crapping on everyone else.

My thinking goes like this:

Stompy & jttm80 - They're either both Wolves making a "all-or-nothing" ploy to win this game, or the Masons.

I think they're the Masons. It's hard for me to do so because of their crazy lynching behaviour in D1, plus jttm80's sneaky backstab vote on me in D1 right after I unvoted him. Unless someone like annawid can convince me otherwise, let's say that they're the Masons. This leaves the only possible pairings of:

annawid & christianmoura - christianmoura just voted annawid. Could be a ploy to break alliance since it looks like things are going under for annawid. Not likely though.

annawid & Fernando - Fernando just voted annawid. Again, could be a ploy to break alliance although I don't think so. Fernando and annawid are in separate camps.

Fernando & christianmoura - now here's an interesting couple. They've not voted for each other. They both voted no-lynch in D1 after some fancy-pansy "you first, no, you first" act towards the end of D1.
If Fernando is a Wolf, he's a good one. First off, he supported role-reveal. What really ticks me off is that he keeps implying that he might be the Tinker. I say, so what? A pure Villager would state what he knows - that he's a Villager. If the Seer says that you're the Wolf, sort it out then. This constant reminding of the possibility of the Tinker is like an insurance for him in case the Seer views him as a Wolf.

Next, he realises that it's obvious that the Masons have surfaced, and quickly supports them. Then he votes annawid. Why not christianmoura? annawid's been silent for much of this game, and the last post from her is that she believes Fernando to be good - so why does he have it in for annawid? Doesn't make sense.

christianmoura's been acting weird this game. Over-analysing scenarios, placing votes with promises to "explain later". I don't know, he just strikes me as playing "out of his style".

My dilemma: I believe Stompy & jttm80 are Masons. I believed Fernando. I thought that we had the game in the bag with annawid and christianmoura being the Wolves. Then christianmoura votes annawid alongside Fernando and this got me thinking about a possible Fernando-christianmoura pair.

Anyway, I'd like to know that the "Masons" think. Any input on this?

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Stompy
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Post by Stompy » Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:07 am

TaleSpinner wrote:Anyway, I'd like to know that the "Masons" think. Any input on this?
hmm, lets see, you still haven't unvoted me!
I too would like to see what Anna has to say. Until then I'm still inclined to believe you're a wolf :lol:

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Fernando
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Post by Fernando » Fri Mar 02, 2007 1:22 am

jeff wrote:Vote Tally Day 2
2 Stompy - TaleSpinner(1), Christianmoura(2), annawid(3)
0 christianmoura - Stompy(4)
1 annawid - Fernando(5)
I believe, after Christian and Stompy voted, Stompy is the one on the line to be lynched.

I will monitor today´s deadline to make sure that neither Stompy or Jttm80 gets lynched.

This means that, even though I still believe that annawid is the best lynch, I am willing to change my vote to prevent either Stompy or Jttm80 to be lynched.

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:35 am

Gawd, I hate this deadline. Look at what time I'm posting! It's the only feasible time to post because by the time I get to work it's 9am and by then, things might have changed so much that it'll take a longer reply from me.

Anyway, I'm rather disappointed that annawid hasn't replied. My conclusion: her Wolf partner has decided to leave her to be lynched, in the hopes that he survives D3.

Unvote Stompy. Vote annawid.

A bit on my strategy this game. I started the game off thinking to play the Villager normally, but then an idea struck me. It's based around this theory: The Wolves act in Pairs. I don't. So, my plan was 2-step:

1. Break all alliances with other players. This is to prove that I operate alone and not in a pair. In D1, I voted annawid and could have gotten her killed if someone else had stepped in and voted her too. In D2, I kept crapping on Fernando and christianmoura (and everyone else for that matter). My other voting targets were Stompy and jttm80; at the start of D2, I'd really thought that the Masons were Fernando and christianmoura because 1) They both voted no-lynch in D1 which is what I'd expect the Masons to do, and 2) Stompy and jttm80 weren't an obvious pair in D1 and were alarmingly pro-lynch. But, anyway, Fernando's point about Stompy's post in D1 proves that Stompy and jttm80 are most likely the real Masons.

2. Establish alliances with the known good in D2 I was hoping for more input from annawid. When she voted Stompy after me, I was interested to see if anyone else would join in the Stompy vote. 3 votes against Stompy would win the game for the Wolves, especially if I looked like a Villager who was still suspicious over the claimed Masons. However, the Wolf strategy in D2 has been different; they've decided to break alliance to avoid suspicion and one of them has now voted the other. It's possible that they don't trust me :lol:

In any case, I've waited long enough for annawid to reply, and I consider Stompy and jttm80 the known good. I consider Fernando a known good as well at this point; he's played a non-wolf too well in this game. I know that I'm a pure Villager, so therefore,

annawid and christianmoura are the Wolves.
Last edited by TaleSpinner on Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:51 am

Stompy wrote:
TaleSpinner wrote:Anyway, I'd like to know that the "Masons" think. Any input on this?
hmm, lets see, you still haven't unvoted me!
I too would like to see what Anna has to say. Until then I'm still inclined to believe you're a wolf :lol:
Please unvote me, Stompy. The wolves can still win this game by doing a last minute vote against me today.

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:41 am

Vote Tally Day 2
1 Stompy - TaleSpinner(1), Christianmoura(2), annawid(3)
0 christianmoura - Stompy(4)
3 annawid - Fernando(5), christianmoura(6), TaleSpinner(8)
1 Talespinner - Stompy(7)


Anna has told me that she is having trouble with getting internet access. I'm willing to allow her to vote by proxy if she wants.

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