Werewolf V

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jttm80
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Post by jttm80 » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:34 am

I always wondered what would happen if Talespinner was a wolf. I mean, he and anna are the most experienced players.

He could be playing us all along!
With his biased in-depth analysis and all that!
:evil:

So I'll just go with a gut feeling and say:
Unvote bsmith
Vote Talespinner

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annawid
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Post by annawid » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:41 am

vote Talespinner

Jeff is still hanging. KK made sure he's the first to vote. I'm worried now. We're all gonna get eaten tonight!! :smt106
Back and ready to game

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:47 am

Interesting. But you are allowed to think as you want. I'm just a plain Villager trying to test the actual statements from each player. With jeff, it's very easy, really.

jeff - has stated that he is not the Wolf, Sorceror or Hunter. This means he must be the Seer or Villager. If he is the Seer, all he needs to do is state that he is, and he won't be lynched. You don't lynch a seer-claim. However, he runs a risk that someone else will come forward as the Seer. In that case, it's good for us - we've found a potential Sorceror or Wolf and we've increased our chances to lynching an evil role to 50%.

If he says that he is a Villager, then that's good for us too. There are only 4 people who have stated out-right that they are pure plain vanilla Villagers: TaleSpinner, annawid, bsmith and jeff. There're only 2 Villagers in the game, so that means 2 of us are lying. Again, that gives us a 50% chance that an evil role to be lynched. For me, I know that I'm telling the truth, so it's an even better 66% chance for me.

If jeff keeps silent, then he knows that whatever way he chooses, he's stuffed it up for the evil side. So he's either an obvious evil, or a villager who isn't interested in living. I'd bet on him being evil.

jeff, if you are on the Village side, please speak up. I don't want to lynch an innocent simply because he isn't interested in getting the Village to win.

So again, are you the Seer or a Villager?

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annawid
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Post by annawid » Wed Dec 20, 2006 10:55 am

I don't trust Bsmith, Talespinner and Jeff. I'm scared Bsmith will change his vote to save Jeff so.... vote Jeff

Sorry Jeff!!! (Do you work the same hours as Christian? If not do you want to join us at Dockers for some gaming?)
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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:03 am

annawid wrote:Do you work the same hours as Christian?
Yeah, that would suck if jeff worked from 12pm - 9pm like Christian, and if he only gets online from work. Perhaps to accomodate everyone's schedule, it would be better to postpone the lynch time to 1pm or 2pm? That'll give everyone ample time to form a reply.

What say you Stompy?

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:20 am

sorry guys, I've been busy this morning. It is a bit awkward not to have Christian here prior to my lynching.

Ok, I'm the SEER. I've been holding off hoping I could get another viewing in since although I had a few votes, I still had a chance to change your minds.

I still hold to my view that those that are first to call for a lynch are more likely to be the wolf. They know they only have a 20% chance of lynching a mate and even if they get the sorcerer, they can still win through attrition. So if they can get someone lynched on the first day, then they will have taken out 2 people by the next morning.

The best option for villagers on the first day is not to lynch anyone. A lynch vote by an innocent has a 3/5 chance of being against an innocent. Not good odds, so why do it?

Why didn't I come out earlier? Well I scried ChristianMoura and got a negative. Since he was never under threat, there was no need to speak up. I just exposed myself to the evil side. You will see the hints I gave earlier to that effect. ie. chris is a good guy and I won't survive the night no matter which way I go.

I more convinced that TaleSpinner is the wolf now. He had nothing to accuse me on at the start.

Why were you guys so keen to get the seer exposed? This is evil talk no matter how you try and spin it.

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:24 am

annawid wrote:Sorry Jeff!!! (Do you work the same hours as Christian? If not do you want to join us at Dockers for some gaming?)
I actually work at docklands, but I'm a lesser geek and have been going to the gym instead. :)

I'll look into Dockers in the new year, just too busy at the moment.

(Unless you guys are running on the thursday after xmas?

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:26 am

annawid wrote:I don't trust Bsmith, Talespinner and Jeff. I'm scared Bsmith will change his vote to save Jeff so.... vote Jeff
How does this implicate me, I don't know. You are jumping all over the place and looking very evil at the moment.

Who will I scry tonight? anna or talespinner? (I'm starting to think the jttm80 comment was a misspoke.)

If I understand it correctly, the seer can only scry the werewolf right?

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:52 am

Well, jeff, that was a rather late admission. Pity, because you've probably just got me killed if no one else changes their vote. But I'd consider it a worthy sacrifice given the amount of data we now have.

So taking your N0 view into account, that leaves just annawid, bsmith and jttm80. Out of the three, my rankings for each are:

1. bsmith
2. annawid
3. jttm80

I'm going with bsmith.

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Wed Dec 20, 2006 12:01 pm

Sorry, miscalculated the votes. Thought that I was at 3 votes. From what I see, it currently stands at:

TaleSpinner - 2 - jeff(2), jttm80(3)
christianmorna - 0
jttm80 - 0 -
annawid - 0
bsmith - 1 - Talespinner(1)
jeff - 3 - christianmorna(6), bsmith(7), annawid(4)

Unless christianmorna changes his vote, we're going to lose our Seer. Man, his 12-9 work time couldn't come at a worse time..

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Wed Dec 20, 2006 12:30 pm

Still don't trust Talespinner, none of his analysis regarding me made any sense.

Why pick me at random? So the first person to vote picks the Seer. does that seem like a random coincidence? Unless he is a sorcerer and scried me on the first night. It is possible since I'm the newbie, I'd be a likely target for scrying since he wouldn't have any information on me.

My analysis showed that in the last 3 games the first person to vote is an evil player. It also showed that the evil side has more motive and better odds than the villagers to lynch on day 1.

Of course he will change his vote to some other random villager to pretend he is innocent so don't let that fool you.

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TaleSpinner
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Post by TaleSpinner » Wed Dec 20, 2006 1:47 pm

I tend not to answer accusations, but I will for this one because I believe now that jeff is the Seer. At least until someone makes another Seer claim.
jeff wrote:Still don't trust Talespinner, none of his analysis regarding me made any sense.
I "tested" a vote against you. That happens a lot in WW because otherwise, no one will vote. I've been in games where no one accuses anyone in Day 1 (resulting in a no-lynch), and then everyone's back in the same boat again in Day 2 with no idea who is evil simply because there is no voting evidence to determine who is on whose side.

Even though I made it clear that I would probably change my vote later on, you reacted badly to the vote, and started accusing me. That is very wolf-like behaviour. You see, at that point, you only had 2 options - deny that you are a Wolf, or accuse someone else. Most newbie wolves opt for the latter because generally no one (new players anyway) likes to deliberately lie about themselves.
Why pick me at random? So the first person to vote picks the Seer. does that seem like a random coincidence? Unless he is a sorcerer and scried me on the first night. It is possible since I'm the newbie, I'd be a likely target for scrying since he wouldn't have any information on me.
It wasn't a random pick. I picked you because you were the first to start sowing suspicion.
My analysis showed that in the last 3 games the first person to vote is an evil player. It also showed that the evil side has more motive and better odds than the villagers to lynch on day 1.
Again, I state that WW would be a very boring game if evil gave themselves away everytime in Day 1. Honestly, the voting mechanism is the only way pure vanilla Villagers like me can get any answers. Votes can always be revoked later on.
Of course he will change his vote to some other random villager to pretend he is innocent so don't let that fool you.
Believe me, if I were a Wolf or Sorceror, I'd be keeping silent right now and let fate take its course with your lynch. It benefits me very little by removing my vote from you - it is only as a gesture to show the others that I mean what I say. bsmith is not a random pick either - he has stated that he is a Villager, which makes either him or annawid a liar. I'm taking a 50% punt that bsmith is evil.

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Wed Dec 20, 2006 2:44 pm

TaleSpinner wrote:I tend not to answer accusations, but I will for this one because I believe now that jeff is the Seer. At least until someone makes another Seer claim.
You'll answer it because it puts you under the spotlight and if you were the villager you would be saying things about how at least you aren't the hunter or the seer and that we still have a chance. You're not because if you get lynched you loose.
I "tested" a vote against you. That happens a lot in WW because otherwise, no one will vote. I've been in games where no one accuses anyone in Day 1 (resulting in a no-lynch), and then everyone's back in the same boat again in Day 2 with no idea who is evil simply because there is no voting evidence to determine who is on whose side.
A no-lynch is the best situation for the villagers. Voting information is useless you know people's roles.

However a no-lynch leaves the villagers in a better position in day 2. Assuming the seer isn't killed (there are no guarantees except that it won't be the wolf). It means that the seer will know that 3 people out of 5 are not the wolf. All we have now is that 1 person out of 6 is not the wolf.
Even though I made it clear that I would probably change my vote later on, you reacted badly to the vote, and started accusing me. That is very wolf-like behaviour. You see, at that point, you only had 2 options - deny that you are a Wolf, or accuse someone else. Most newbie wolves opt for the latter because generally no one (new players anyway) likes to deliberately lie about themselves.
I accused you on good grounds. I stated even if I wasn't the target I would still have accused you. Recent history suggests that the first voter is evil. The benefits are clear.
It wasn't a random pick. I picked you because you were the first to start sowing suspicion.
Was I? Lets look back...
TaleSpinner wrote:Was this in the same PM where he told you the result of your scrying?
Oh dear! Looks like you were again the first to start sowing suspicion. Or was this a veiled message to the sorcerer?
Again, I state that WW would be a very boring game if evil gave themselves away everytime in Day 1. Honestly, the voting mechanism is the only way pure vanilla Villagers like me can get any answers. Votes can always be revoked later on.
Uh huh. I'm sure it doesn't happen every time, however it seems to happen quite a lot on this forum![/quote]
Believe me, if I were a Wolf or Sorceror, I'd be keeping silent right now and let fate take its course with your lynch. It benefits me very little by removing my vote from you - it is only as a gesture to show the others that I mean what I say.
That is right, it is only a gesture.
bsmith is not a random pick either - he has stated that he is a Villager, which makes either him or annawid a liar. I'm taking a 50% punt that bsmith is evil.
That is some crazy logic! You completely ignore the other players. And Christian might still be a sorcerer.

But then again, your logic explanations have been strange to say the least. I was clearly the wolf to you before.

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jeff
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Post by jeff » Wed Dec 20, 2006 2:49 pm

speaking of which, why isn't christian saying anything?

I see that he is browsing the forum...

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christianmoura
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Post by christianmoura » Wed Dec 20, 2006 2:52 pm

Just wanted to see if there has been a result - I am in and out of meetings all day... will have to catch up later when things quiet down...

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